A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
