Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
